Irish Unification Plebiscite Should Not Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Analysts Warn

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."